Stimulus Status: Passed First Hurdle, Next Steps

By Max Pappas on February 09, 2009

With yes votes from all the Democrats and three Republicans (Sens. Specter (Penn.), Snowe (Maine) and Collins (Maine)), the Senate has just voted 61-36 to end debate on the trillion dollar stimulus bill.  This was likely the only chance the bill was going to be stopped.

The vote to end debate (the cloture vote) is the first and biggest procedural hurdle that needs to be cleared before the Senate can vote on final passage of the bill.  It is where the minority party has most power to prevent the tyranny of the majority because 60 votes are needed to end debate.  This is where a filibuster is used.  They rarely talk endlessly anymore to prevent the end of debate by way of filibuster, but rather they use the 60 vote threshold. 

The Democrats hold 56 seats, plus have 2 independents who caucus with them, giving them 58 votes, so they needed at least 2 Republicans to move forward.  They got three.

The next step is expected to be a vote around Noon tomorrow, Feb 10.  But that isn't the final vote either.  That is a vote to waive the "PAYGO" rules that were put in place to check out of control spending (and tax cuts).  The "PAYGO" or "pay-as-you-go" rules were a central part of the Democratic campaigns in 2006 as they railed against the out of control spending of the Bush administration and the Republicans in control of Congress at the time.

The rule was ostensibly put in place to prevent increases in the deficit--it requires that any new spending either be off-set by reductions in other spending, or by tax increases. (However, given how things have turned out, it was more likely put in place to stop tax cuts, which also would have required an equal amount of spending cuts, never mind any dynamic growth effects they may have).

It doesn't look like they are going to let that little rule get in their way.  Rather than vote on the tax increase that will ultimately be needed to pay for this (or actually come out and say they are going to inflate the currency to pay the trillion by stealth--inflation being a tax on savings) they just waive the rule they were so adamant about instituting.

The waiving of that supposedly central plank of the Democratic platform will also require 60 votes.  There used to be a group of Democrats known as the "Blue Dogs" who paid lip service to fiscal responsibility.  After this vote, it will be tough for any supporter to do so with a straight face...except for maybe an experienced politician. Blue Dogs

After that rule is waived, the Senate will proceed to final passage, which will just require a simple majority to pass--that may happen Tuesday night. 

The Senate and House will then meet to work out the differences between there bills, which they hope to have done before this weekend.  We are currently hearing there are a lot of House Democrats who are unhappy about the changes the Senate made, including former football star and current Congressman Heath Shuler (D-NC) who said House Speaker Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid "failed" in making this a bipartisan bill, adding "We have to have everyone — Democrats and Republicans standing on the stage with the administration — saying, 'We got something done that was efficient, stimulative and timely.'"Heath Shuler

Let's hope they can't come to an agreement.  Better yet, let's help them not come to an agreement by ringing their phones off the hook with our objections to the bill!

If you don't know your Congressman's number, try the US Capitol switchboard: 202-224-3121

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