The Lieberman Factor

Al Gore read the handwriting on the wall and decided he was not up to a rematch with President Bush. So, he’s gone. We wish him well ….

The most obvious immediate beneficiary of the Gore drop out is his former running mate, Senator Joe Lieberman (D-Ct). Now released from a pledge not to run in the primaries against Gore, Lieberman has given every indication that he plans to jump on “the awesome opportunity” he now has to run for President.

We can expect an announcement of the Lieberman candidacy sometime in January or early February. Yet, we do not yet know which version of Joe Lieberman plans to run for President. His decision will in large part shape the nature and tone of the race for the Democratic nomination.

Senator Lieberman has an interesting resume and personal story. Initially a political unknown, Lieberman’s big break came when he won a huge upset in the race for Connecticut Attorney General. He then scored an even bigger upset by defeating the long time liberal giant of Connecticut politics, Republican/Independent Lowell Weiker.

Prior to running for national office, Lieberman staked out a reputation as a real and somewhat entrepreneurial moderate. He supported Social Security reform and argued for personal retirement accounts. As a Orthodox Jew, he pressed for school choice – illustrating the real issue is improving education, not so-called government support for faith-based schools. He chaired the Democratic Leadership Council (DLC) and actually used the position to challenge much of the liberal dogma of the left wing of his party. This version of Joe Lieberman won the praise of the likes of conservative Jack Kemp, who called him “one of us.”

And then there is the national candidate Joe Lieberman. This version turned out to be a real disappointment. Within a week of Al Gore selecting him as Vice President, Lieberman has renounced his support for Social Security reform. He called personal retirement accounts a “terrible idea.” Previous support for marginal rate reductions morphed into a daily attack on the Bush tax cut. To his credit, while he stopped talking about school choice, he never renounced his support for the idea.

It would be easy to say Lieberman had no choice as Al Gore’s running mate but to adopt his boss’s policy. He has recently criticized the Gore Lieberman “people vs. the powerful” message of 2000. So perhaps it might be unfair to judge him on the four months he traveled the country as a national candidate. Perhaps. That’s Joe Lieberman’s dilemma.

Lieberman has not yet won the chance to run his own general election against President Bush. He first must master the process and collect the delegates to win the Democratic nomination. So he must decide which version of Joe Lieberman is running for President of the United States. Where does he stand on personal retirement accounts? Former president Clinton recently hinted to the DLC that he thinks they are a winning idea. Can Lieberman use this cover to stake a bold, entrepreneurial position in the primaries?

What about school choice? Here things get really tough for Lieberman. Almost one-third of the delegates to the Democratic convention in 1996 were members of the National Education Association. It will take one heck of a politician to manage his way successfully through the Democratic primaries as a school choice supporter.

No other candidate in the potential democratic field has more difficult decisions to make about the nature of his candidacy. But, at the same time, no other potential candidate has the ability to shape the entire nature and tone of the race. Lieberman, if he’s willing can use his candidacy to try and move the Democratic Party to the mainstream center. In other words he could demonstrate leadership by risking his candidacy on issues and ideals that have defined his career. Or, he could decide to play it safe and use his name ID and life story as his hook to the presidential nomination.

Should he decide to take the path of boldness, Lieberman would be a tougher opponent in the general election against President Bush. But the country would be better-off with that type of campaign.