Why Dean and Gephardt Lost

Professional pundits, after spending fabulous amounts of time being completely wrong about what would happen in the Iowa Caucuses, are now spending more time being wrong about why Dean and Gephardt lost and Kerry and Edwards won.

They propose complicated theories that apply differently to each candidate. They argue that the unions could not get the vote out for Gephardt—then mention the exceedingly high voter turnout. They make strange statements claiming Dean brought new people into Caucuses, who then must have voted for Kerry. They argue it was a bizarrely calculated effort by the Iowans who all of the sudden decided Dean could not win against Bush, so they instead voted for a more likely winner in Dean or Edwards.

These poor explanations reflect the confusion and poor perception of reality possessed by the Washington pundit-class. These pundits should take themselves out of their D.C. mindset for a minute and try to remember what it is like to be a regular American, an American who does something productive with his or her days, rather than repeatedly, erroneously predict political events. And they should try to remember what it is like to pay taxes while earning a regular income.

This should lead to the simple answer that explains the outcome in Iowa: TAXES. The voters in Iowa chose the candidates who least threatened to raise their taxes. Dean and Gephardt were the only two major candidates who said they would repeal all the tax cuts given to the American people by President Bush. Kerry and Edwards took a more moderate (if class-warfare-ish) stance and advocated the protection of the tax cuts for the middle class. Kerry went so far as to air commercials in Iowa that faulted other candidates for not supporting the middle-class tax cuts.

Surprise! The voters of Iowa decided they did not want to pay higher taxes. They decided working full time until April 19th , Tax Freedom Day according to the Tax Foundation, just to pay their taxes was long enough—and better than having to work until April 30th, as they did before the Bush tax cuts. They decided that paying more in taxes than what they spend on clothing, transportation, recreation, food, and savings combined is enough.

The message from the voters in Iowa is clear: they do not want their taxes raised. Add their voice to the growing cry for tax relief spreading across the nation. Candidates for president would do well to ignore the fuzzy logic coming from Washington’s political pundits and listen to the clear anti-tax message voters continue to shout. The voters in Iowa have joined the voters in Alabama, and the voters in Oregon, and the voters in Ohio, and the voters in Florida, and the more than 300,000 members of Citizens for a Sound Economy in saying they want lower taxes, less government, and more freedom!