With the midterm elections rapidly approaching, professional forecasters are focusing much of their attention on traditionally red states in middle America, such as Iowa, Arkansas, Louisiana, and West Virginia. Many of these races are tighter than they should be, given the unpopularity of the president and his policies. At the same time, polling companies are admitting that they are expecting greater polling error this year. Part of this, they attribute to the difficulties in predicting turnout, but one cannot help but wonder to what extent rapidly shifting demographics are playing a role in this election’s high degree of uncertainty.