State of the Union Momentum

Last week Citizens for a Sound Economy commissioned the first major nationwide poll on the President’s economic plan, which he announced in early January. Our poll, conducted by the widely respected Tarrance Group, came after the policy was announced and was intended to determine public interest and knowledge of what the President had already announced. This is the proper use of polling in the public policy arena. It stands in stark contrast to how Bill Clinton used polls. He polled first to help him decide what policy to follow.

The results speak for themselves. The American people support the president’s plan in its entirety and they support the specific components of the plan. Almost three quarters (74 percent) of registered voters want the tax cuts passed by Congress in 2001 accelerated and fully implemented this year. Liberals have opposed the idea of accelerating the tax cuts – they want Washington to hang-on the money as long as possible – but apparently liberals are the only ones who think it is a good idea to further delay the tax cuts. The rest of America wants the tax cut right now.

The President plan also eliminates the double taxation of dividends. That means if you own stock, the profits from the company will only be taxed once. The dividends you receive after the company has finished paying taxes, will no longer count as taxable income to yourself. In America in 2003 over half of working adults own some stock, so I wasn’t surprised to find strong support for the elimination of double taxation. By an almost two-to-one margin, our poll found that people support the president’s proposal to end double taxation.

The President’s plan to accelerate the end of the marriage penalty has the support of registered voters. 77% think it is a good idea to eliminate the marriage penalty right now rather than wait until 2009, as is scheduled under current law. 80% support the idea of immediately increasing the per-child tax credit from $600 to $1,000.

More than anything else, the registered voters liked the idea of tax reform. When they were told that the president’s plan moves in the direction of fundamental tax reform by making the code simpler flatter, and fairer support for the overall plan increased dramatically. According to the Tarrance Group, no other element of the plan moved voters more than the tax reform message. We’ve been saying that at CSE for a very long time!

We did find something the voters didn’t like – the Democrats in Congress. The registered voters approval/disapproval of how Democrats were handling the economy was at 33% approve and 50% disapprove. The Democrats have decided to take on the President’s economic plan – and the voters don’t like it.

So what does all this mean? First, economic conservatives, Administration officials and conservative elected officials need to aggressively sell this plan to the people because it is a winner. The more we move the national discussion to a debate over the Bush tax cut, the more momentum we will build for its passage through the Congress. Equally important, the discussion must move beyond Washington and the halls of Congress. The only group that wants to keep this debate inside Washington is the liberal elected leadership of the Democrat party. We want this debate to take place back homes in the congressmen’s district and we want real Americans to have their voice heard.

To their credit, the current White House does not like polling. The President made his decision on this plan without the benefit of a poll like the one we conducted last week. But now that the plan has been introduced, our job is to help build political momentum for its key elements. Demonstrating the overwhelming support of registered voters helps build that momentum. Politicians listen to what voters have to say. And CSE’s new poll makes very clear how the voters feel.