NY-09: Obama’s in trouble.

New York’s 9th district is a +20 Democrat district. 3-1 Democrat to Republican, where President Obama won in 2008 with 55%. 40% Jewish, making it among the most prominently Jewish districts in the country. It encompasses Queens and Brooklyn. This is not “bitter clinger” flyover territory.

And yet, for the first time since 1923, a Democrat lost that race. David Weprin didn’t just lose, he lost by a full 8 points

Meanwhile, in Nevada, there was a special election in CD-2. In 2008, District 2 went to John McCain by just 88 votes. Last night’s election resulted in a 22 point blowout.

So, why? What has changed? Were these Republicans just that good? 

Absolutely not. President Obama’s policies are just that bad. This is a direct referendum on the economy and jobs. 

In the event that this was just a fluke, a “special case in a specific district in a low turnout election that is a “difficult for Democrats” I looked into some more numbers from around the country, particularly in states that Barack Obama won in 2008. How’s he doing in Florida? Ohio? Even California?

Let’s start with Florida – an important swing state that President Obama carried by three points against John McCain in 2008. This poll a few weeks ago shows devastating numbers.

Among all respondents, only 37% approve of the job the President is doing and 57% disapprove of the job he is doing. Again looking at key voter subgroups, 53% of women, 56% of independents, 72% of Hispanics and 59% of seniors disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing. The most alarming number for the President and his election team is that 26% of Democrats disapprove of the job he is doing. Among voters aged 18 to 29, 48% approve of the job he is doing and 52% disapprove of thejob he is doing.

Okay, but Florida is unique and can swing either way during a Presidential cycle. Where is he at in, say, California? Obviously his policies will be playing well there, right? Isn’t this what they asked for?

Apparently not

Just 46 percent of voters approve of the job Obama is doing, while 44 percent disapprove. That is eight points lower than the previous Field Poll, conducted in June.

Obama has lost ground among all groups. His approval rating is 10 points lower among Democrats, 2 points lower among Republicans, and a whopping 13 points lower among independents, down to 45 percent among that key group.

Well under 50% approval in his strongest state?

Let’s take a look at another state he won in 2008: Ohio. He carried Ohio against John McCain by 4 points

From last month

Barack Obama’s approval rating in the state right now is 44%, with 52% of voters disapproving of him. His numbers with independents are horrid at 34/59. And there’s a whole lot more Democrats (16%) who disapprove of him than there are Republicans (just 4%) who like him. 

But that’s from last month! Won’t he get a bounce from his “jobs” proposal? Not likely

Some other swing state numbers:

Was at just 35% in Pennsylvania the end of August. 

Down to 43% in North Carolina

He’s at 45% in Wisconsin, down 7 points since May. 

These are all states that Obama carried in 2008, and Pennsylvania, Florida and Ohio are critical to a Presidential win. 

The conclusion: last night was not a fluke. This is a national trend. Democrats in power have refused to empower the private sector and have chosen instead to stimulate and regulate and legislate their way through this crisis, missing the point entirely.

Despite the broad dismissal and ridiculous claims from Democrats, NY-09 was a bellweather, and is indicative of what we’re seeing everywhere.